Iran-Saudi deal- Major political earthquake

If this deal holds up, it can cause a major political rearrangement in the region

There is no doubt that the latest Chinese-sponsored deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a major political earthquake that will shift the basis of much of the alignments we know in the Middle East.

On the international level, it is a blow to the United States which has partially lost one of its most important regional allies, Saudi Arabia, to the Chinese. America and Israel were counting on the Saudis and Emirates to help them weaken the fellow Muslim Iranians, without paying enough attention and effort to Mohammad Ben Salman and his father the King of Saudi Arabia.

While the return of relations, which should be welcomed by all, will mean a much more stable and less volatile Middle East. The rapprochement between Suni Saudis and Shitte Iranians will have a direct influence on the civil war in Yemen. The Yazid Shite Houthiths will now have to mend their relationship with their fellow Sunni Yemenis, hopefully ending this sad chapter.

The improvement of relations will also help smooth the elections of a new Christian Maronite president in Lebanon and will allow for some kind of consensus between Sunni Muslims and Hizbullah Shittes in Lebanon.

The deal might also soften the conflict in Syria. Saudis are on good terms with the Russians and with this agreement, it is possible to find a comprehensive deal regarding the presence of troops from Russia, Iran, the US, and Turkey on Syrian soil.

The Iran-Saudi agreement is a major blow to Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu who has been promising almost daily that Saudis will soon join the Abrahamic normalization wagon. This is now a much more remote possibility.

Of course, the Biden administration can learn the lessons of its hard negotiating tactics and soften its demands regarding the return to the five plus one nuclear deal with Iran.

Will we see a renewal of negotiations? It seems much more likely now than before.

Some time is needed to see if the current agreement will hold. The coming Hajj season late in June 2023 will be the first test of whether the agreement is built on solid ground or not.